kirsi16 9 months ago Edited Sao Paulo, Brazil 2 78 With only 25 points and 16 goals in 17 games, Argentina reaches the last round of qualifiers with a lousy campaign and real risk of being out of the World Cup for the first time since 1970. In the decisive game, next Tuesday (10/10), Messi and company visit the eliminated Ecuador in Quito. Understand the scenarios that eliminate or classify Argentines: To be on top 4 and qualify directly: 1. Wins next match: Argentina has to cheer for one of the following scenarios: Chile defeat or draw against Brazil; Draw between Colombia and Peru; Peru's victory over Colombia by a lesser goal difference than Argentina's victory. 2. Draws next match: Argentina would depend on: Brazillian victory over Chile by two or more goals AND Colombian victory over Peru AND Paraguay does not win Venezuela at home; Brazillian victory over Chile by two or more goals AND Peruvian victory over Colombia by two or more goals AND Paraguay does not win Venezuela at home. 3. Loses next match: It is impossible for Argentina to be in top four at this point. To advance to inter-confederation playoffs: 1. Wins next match: Argentina automatically gets to play against New Zealand. 2. Draws next match: Argentina has to cheer for two of following four scenarios: Brazil's victory over Chile by two or more goals; Colombia's victory over Peru; Peru's victory over Colombia by two or more goals; Paraguay does not win Venezuela. 3. Loses next match: Argentina is still able to go to Russia 2018, but the combination is far more unlikely: Peru needs to lose by a goal difference superior to that of Argentine defeat to Ecuador AND Paraguay does not win Venezuela. In my opinion, it seems that Argentina has greater chances to qualify for World Cup than to fail miserably. Despite Ecuador losing five times in a row, they are not a bad team, considering that Ecuador won the same amount of matches as Argentina, and the last match between them ended 2-0 for Ecuador at Argentine home. They also won Uruguay 2-1 at home. Disgress (maybe): I know people will bash me for this...... World rank wise, South America has 4 teams in top 10, 6 teams in top 20, and 8 teams in top 40. The World Cup has 32 participants. Considering the quality of other teams in other qualifiers, this format is quite unjust for us to play. The competition in Conmebol is just insane. Showing previous versions of this text.