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EPL winners odds over the 17/18 season.
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[Chelsea FC, Sweden]
Posts: 52 | Comments: 2439

In this thread we'll talk about who'll win the EPL and which teams that will be relegated. Opinions, form, expectations and odds change over the season and I'll post updated odds every now and then. Who knows, maybe one day there'll be another 3000 times the money champion.

Showing previous versions of this text.

In this thread we'll talk about who'll win the EPL. Opinions, form, expectations and odds change over the season and I'll post updated odds every now and then. Who knows, maybe one day there'll be another 3000 times the money champion.

Comments
  • +1
[Chelsea FC, Sweden]
Posts: 52 | Comments: 2439

Current odds of EPL winners: City @ 2.87, United @ 4,50, Chelsea @ 4,50, Spurs @ 10, Arsenal @ 12, Pool @ 13.

Odds from 2 weeks ago (pretty much the same). City @ 2,87, United @ 4,33, Chelsea @ 4,50, Spurs @ 10, Arsenal @ 12, Pool @ 13.

-Next odds update after the transfer window is shut.

Edit: Odds for teams to be relegated (2017-08-08): Huddersfield @ 1,66, Brighton @ 2,20, Burnley @ 2,25, watford @ 2,75, Swansea @ 3, Newcastle @ 4,5, Crystal Palace @ 6, Bournemouth @ 7, West Bromwich @ 7, Stoke @ 7.

Showing previous versions of this text.

Current odds of EPL winners: City @ 2.87, United @ 4,50, Chelsea @ 4,50, Spurs @ 10, Arsenal @ 12, Pool @ 13.

Odds from 2 weeks ago (pretty much the same). City @ 2,87, United @ 4,33, Chelsea @ 4,50, Spurs @ 10, Arsenal @ 12, Pool @ 13.

-Next odds update after the transfer window is shut.

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[Besiktas]
Posts: 133 | Comments: 2986

Interesting odds. Surprised to see the Manchester teams at the top after last season. This thread will be better with the on-going predictor.

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[Trinidad and Tobago]
Posts: 7 | Comments: 70

1st Liverpool F.C.
2nd Manchester United F.C.
3rd Chelsea F.C.
4th Arsenal F.C.

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Posts: 210 | Comments: 5927

@KTB Those odds doesn't seem right, how Spurs and Chelsea (not so low but still) can be so low after their performance from last season? :S I mean, I do know they are right cause I had already seen them but I don't get it.

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[Liverpool]
Posts: 2 | Comments: 180

I don't think Liverpool can win the league. If You park the bus, you win against Liverpool.. so simple.
Costa and Fabreagas are the trump cards of Chelsea.. Costa is leaving and Fabregas is getting into second choice. So, not for Chelsea.
Man Utd and Man City have good chances.
Liverpool can win if they get Keita and VVD..
Fingers crossed.

  • +2
[Chelsea FC, Sweden]
Posts: 52 | Comments: 2439

@emo odds are funny in that way, but it's fairly easy to explain. Let's say EPL has 6 serious title contenders and that they all would have the same chance of winning the EPL. Each team would have odds of 6 times the money right? However, adding to that, most bookies apply a win margin so the odds changes according to how people bet, but overall the pay out usually is around 95% (sometimes a bit higher). That means that bookies would probably give an odds of around 5,7 for any given team of the 6, although the real odds should be 6. Ok? Alright. Now imagine that one of the team is slighlty better and one of the teams is slightly worse. City are by many considered favorites for 2017/2018 while Spurs will play away from white hart lane all the season and is generally considered less of a favorite to win EPL this year. So, if City are considered twice as likely to win the EPL trophy (Spurs in this case worse than the other 6), the odds would change dramatically too. Spurs would now have 9 times the money and City 4 times the money (6 *1.5 and 6/1.5).

Converting real odds to probability, City's odds of 2.87 equals a winning probability of 34,8%. Because 1 (100%) / 2.87 = 0,348. Given that pundits usaully pay out around 95% of the received capital, the real probability (at this time) according to experts is (0,348/95)*100=0,366 or 36,6%. Basically the winning margin is the reason to why more people lose on betting than who win. In 1X2 there are 3 outcomes and the odds (or probability actually) added up is less than 1 (or100%). 2,73 in odds would equal the true odds for City's title chances (1/x=0,366).

For Spurs that means they're given 10,5% chance of winning. Now, this doesn't sound like much but given that there is around 6 teams that can potentially compete for the title and City etc argually being favorites for a reason.. well, it's pretty fair and basically means that Spurs would win 1 season out of 10 with the same team or that if they would play the same season 10 times in a multiple universe or something they'd managed to win in one of them.

Showing previous versions of this text.
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[Chelsea FC, Sweden]
Posts: 52 | Comments: 2439

enter image description here

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Posts: 210 | Comments: 5927

@KTB To be fair, I didn't get all that, but it make for a very interesting reading. You are clearly well-versed in how bookmaker chose those odds. I gotta say that I think its great to be so knowledgeable. Color me impress. :)

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[Manchester United, Netherlands]
Posts: 145 | Comments: 4974

@KTB: excellent stuffs mate

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[Chelsea FC, Sweden]
Posts: 52 | Comments: 2439

@tuan @emo Oh, you guys are tooo sweet. Blushing*

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[Chelsea FC, England]
Posts: 242 | Comments: 4681

Odds are high for United because Mourinho doesn't go longer than two seasons without a league title. I think it is fair to say that maybe this might be their year but I think Chelsea won't give it up easily .

Edit: I don't see City winning the league no matter how brilliant KTBF has calculated the odds )))

Showing previous versions of this text.

Odds are high for United because Mourinho doesn't go longer than two seasons without a league title. I think it is fair to say that maybe this might be their year but I think Chelsea won't give it up easily .

  • +1
[Chelsea FC, England]
Posts: 242 | Comments: 4681

EPL title race will be like bulldogs fighting under the carpet.

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Posts: 210 | Comments: 5927

@Marcus2011 I really like that comparison, fit PL so well.

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[Chelsea FC]
Posts: 141 | Comments: 3603

First = United/Spurs

Twentieth = Chelsea

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[Manchester United]
Posts: 29 | Comments: 319

Pep's reputation is on the line this season, so I feel as though he's going to push City to the very end for the title. Mourinho the same, although the consequences of us losing out on the title race wouldn't be punishing as Pep's case imo. I also predict that Everton are going to make a surprising breakthrough too as their squad looks like a real force to be reckoned with.

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[Manchester United, England]
Posts: 15 | Comments: 484

good thread...

interesting to see how united were the only ones that dropped over the past 2 weeks

i wonder what that was due to? any ideas anyone?

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[Arsenal]
Posts: 373 | Comments: 6406

I don't see Spurs getting into top 3, they have no depth + new stadium..

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Posts: 210 | Comments: 5927

@nigelpayne Maybe because they were linked with certain player and then all of those move collapsed (Perisic, Dier or even Bale). Maybe because of pre-season results as well. I wouldn't know for sure.

@quikzyyy Would be quite cruel for them, after slowly getting higher in the table (third then second). Not being able to compete for the title would be a bit sad. :(

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[Chelsea FC, England]
Posts: 242 | Comments: 4681

@quikzy

They don't need depth. They will be out of the CL in group stages and out of EL in first round.

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Posts: 210 | Comments: 5927

@Marcus Sorry mate, but nothing permit you to be sure of that. Anything could happen. It will mostly depend on who they have to deal with in their group. :P

Showing previous versions of this text.

@Marcus Sorry mate, but nothing permit you to be sure of that. Anything could happen. It will mostly depend on who they have to deal in their group. :P

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